3 Lessons Cheap Oil Has Taught the Pump Market

As oil prices continue to fall, one fact is clear—the MENA region is leading the conversation on the market's future. Since the Nov. 27 decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to maintain current production levels, the cost of crude has dipped as low as US$47 per barrel as of early January. Prices have dropped to the lowest level since the 2009 economic crisis.

Pump manufacturers and customers alike want to understand how these developments will affect the future of projects in the Middle East and North Africa. So far, here are three lessons that cheap oil can teach end users about the future of the oil & gas market.

1. In the Middle East, market share is most important.

Last year's OPEC decision communicated to the world the Middle East's willingness to wait out the market. While other members, such as Venezuela, have discussed calling an extraordinary meeting of the oil cartel, leading suppliers Saudi Arabia and UAE have expressed their continued commitment to current production levels. Saudi Arabia will likely rely on currency reserves to weather any budget upsets. Thanks to the nationalization of most production activities compared with the newer U.S. shale market, the region is more organized to hold onto its position.

2. Ongoing and future projects must adapt to low oil prices.

As 2014 ended, international companies such as ExxonMobil and Chevron announced that operations and new projects could continue at prices as low as US$40 per barrel, according to industry reports. Saudi Arabia's ambitious budget for 2015 stayed relatively unchanged. While market leaders express confidence, many experts caution that project development in several industries, including oil & gas production and construction, will slow in response to lower prices. For example, oilfield service companies might see reductions in staff, while infrastructure projects could be put on hold in the absence of price improvements.

3. Oil-dependent and developing nations are caught in the middle.

With the rise of U.S. shale, two very different economic models have come into sharp contrast. In the Middle East, national oil companies and regional organizations centrally control oil production. In the U.S., several mid- to small-size producers contribute to an overall output. Between these two, oil-dependent nations, such as Russia and Venezuela, are experiencing economic upset. Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected demand in Asian markets has convinced major Middle East producers to reevaluate how they will supply the region—particularly the world's second-largest economy, China.