The changing landscape of power generation and decarbonization pathways presents a critical evolution in producing electricity. Power generation is the crucial process of transforming diverse energy sources into the electricity that powers our homes, industries and technologies. Historically dominated by fossil fuels like coal and natural gas, this sector also harnesses nuclear energy and an expanding array of renewable resources such as wind, solar and hydroelectric power.
As the global community intensifies its focus on sustainability and reducing carbon emissions, the methods of producing electricity are rapidly evolving. This momentum signals a future where renewable energy is set to surpass fossil fuels, fundamentally reshaping the landscape of power generation with greater authority and urgency.
Current Power Generation Mix
In 2023, the global energy mix for electricity generation reflected a growing shift toward cleaner, low-emission technologies, with 39% of global power generation coming from low-emission sources.1 This includes 9% from nuclear power and 30% from renewables such as solar, wind and hydroelectric power. While this marks significant progress, fossil fuels—especially coal—still dominate the global energy mix, although their share is steadily declining. In contrast, natural gas is growing in importance2, particularly in regions like the United States.
Wind and solar power have experienced the fastest growth among renewables. These technologies have become more cost-competitive over the past decade, largely due to technological improvements, economies of scale and government incentives.
Forecast for 2026 & Beyond
Looking ahead to 2026, the share of low-emission sources is expected to rise to 46%, with renewables making up 37% of total generation. Wind and solar will continue to lead this growth, alongside other technologies such as bioenergy and geothermal power. In the longer term, the share of low-emission energy sources is expected to increase further, driven by technology advancements and supportive policy decisions. Achieving these targets will depend mainly on global efforts to address energy security and meet climate commitments. A range of outcomes is possible, as reflected in scenarios published by organizations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), which highlight different trajectories based on the level of renewable adoption.
The Critical Role of Infrastructure & Storage Investments
As the global energy mix shifts toward low-emission sources, significant investments are required to modernize infrastructure and ensure the reliability of power generation. This includes upgrading transmission grids and expanding energy storage systems to support the integration of variable renewable energy sources like wind and solar.
Grid Infrastructure
Initially designed for centralized fossil fuel-based power generation, existing grids must be upgraded to accommodate decentralized and variable renewable energy sources. Large-scale transmission grid enhancements are necessary to connect renewable energy sources located in remote areas to demand centers.
Energy Storage Systems
A key challenge for renewable energy sources like wind and solar is their intermittency, which can lead to frequency imbalances in the grid. Significant investments in energy storage systems are needed to ensure a consistent power supply. Battery energy storage systems (BESS) and long-duration energy storage (LDES) technologies enable the storage of excess renewable energy for use during periods of low generation. These technologies will improve the reliability of renewable energy and ensure power is available around the clock, reducing reliance on fossil fuels during peak demand periods.
Decarbonizing Fossil Fuel Power Generation Pathways
Despite the rapid growth of renewable energy, fossil fuel power plants dominate global electricity production. These facilities, particularly in developing regions, are relatively young and are expected to remain operational for decades. This reality underscores the urgent need to invest in decarbonization technologies to reduce emissions and ensure these plants operate more sustainably.
Fortunately, innovative solutions are emerging to meet this challenge. Technologies such as carbon capture, hydrogen-ready turbines and ammonia cofiring offer viable pathways to lower the carbon footprint of these fossil fuel assets, extending their operational life while aligning with global climate goals.
Carbon Capture Technology
Post-combustion carbon capture3 is one of the main pathways for decarbonizing existing fossil fuel power plants. This technology captures CO2 emissions from the flue gas after combustion. For instance, amine-based carbon capture is a technically mature solution more and more plants adopt to reduce their carbon footprint. Some technology companies are actively working on refining this technology, making it more efficient and cost-effective.
Hydrogen-Ready Turbines
As the global energy mix shifts from coal to natural gas, hydrogen is emerging as a potential fuel source for power generation. New natural gas-fired plants are being designed with hydrogen-ready turbines, which means they can transition to burning low-carbon hydrogen as it becomes commercially viable. This could involve initially blending hydrogen with natural gas, eventually leading to 100% hydrogen-powered plants.
However, transitioning to hydrogen will require equipment upgrades, including modifications to fuel gas compressors and filters to ensure reliable and safe operation. Essential for successful upgrades are the right mechanical sealing solutions for the compressors and optimal filter design to protect the equipment and support the smooth and efficient operation of hydrogen-ready systems.
Ammonia Cofiring in Coal Plants
In regions where coal remains a significant power source, cofiring with clean ammonia offers a decarbonization pathway. Particularly in Southeast Asia, where coal plants are still relatively young, ammonia cofiring has garnered more interest.
Japan and other countries are testing cofiring technologies that allow coal-fired plants to burn a mix of coal and low-
carbon ammonia, reducing carbon emissions without decommissioning valuable infrastructure.
Though still in its infancy, ammonia cofiring has the potential to reduce emissions from coal plants. Currently, plants can cofire up to 20% ammonia4, with efforts underway to increase that dramatically to fully replace coal and utilize those assets at least to the end of their design life.
Supercritical CO2 Power Cycles
Innovative technologies like supercritical CO2 (sCO2) power cycles, such as the Allam-Fetvedt Cycle, are emerging as highly efficient, low-cost methods of power generation that capture almost all CO2 emissions by design. These systems use oxy-combustion and high-pressure supercritical CO2 as a working fluid, producing only water and a stream of high-purity, pipeline-ready CO2. This makes them ideal for reducing emissions from natural gas and gasified solid fuels such as biomass and municipal solid waste.
Other technologies, like the CEOX oxy-fuel combustion process, are designed to operate at lower pressures and temperatures, utilizing widely available equipment and closed-loop power cycles to enhance emission reductions further. Further designs and variations of sCO2 power cycles are being worked on by various technology companies. These innovative solutions are being piloted globally and show great potential for future low-emission power generation from fossil fuels.
Navigating the Energy Transition
The global power generation landscape is rapidly evolving, with renewable energy sources taking center stage. However,
fossil fuels will remain part of the mix for the foreseeable future, necessitating innovative solutions to decarbonize existing assets. Technologies such as carbon capture, hydrogen-ready turbines and ammonia cofiring are critical to achieving global climate targets while ensuring energy security.
As the world undergoes this energy transition, engineering advancements and specialized sealing technologies will play a vital role in ensuring the efficient and reliable operation of both renewable and fossil fuel power generation systems. The energy transition presents an opportunity for the industry to drive innovation and ensure a sustainable, low-carbon future for power generation worldwide.
References
- iea.org/reports/electricity-2024/executive-summary
- ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-prod-source-stacked?stackMode=relative
- globalccsinstitute.com/ccs-explained-capture
- ammoniaenergy.org/articles/jera-concludes-successful-co-firing-trial-at-hekinan
